STRATFOR; Intelligence Guidance: Week of March 22, 2009

[Shawn Swanson]

www.stratfor.com

Intelligence Guidance: Week of March 22, 2009

STRATFOR TODAY » March 20, 2009 | 2208 GMT

Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.

1. The Northern Alliance in Afghanistan: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e-Sharif this weekend along with his Tajik and Afghan counterparts to celebrate the Persian New Year. On one level, this visit is about showing Washington the leverage Iran holds in this region when the United States is reaching out to the Iranians for assistance in Afghanistan.

On another level, this visit appears to strongly indicate that Iran will be looking to revive the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. This is the kind of thing that could seriously undermine U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, which aims at engaging “moderate Taliban” to split the insurgency. But Iran is not the only regional power that wants the Taliban kept in check. We need to spend time figuring out the status of the Northern Alliance’s relationship with the Iranians, the Russians, the Indians and the Central Asian states, especially Tajikistan.

2. U.S. supply lines into Afghanistan: The Taliban are likely to increase their targeting of U.S. supply lines into Afghanistan in the months ahead, which will greatly complicate U.S. efforts there. The United States’ relations with Russia, Europe and Iran all pivot on this point. We need to map out in detail the U.S. and Pakistani routes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, specifically the structure and security of the routes in the Quetta-Kandahar and Peshawar-Kabul corridors, keeping in mind the Taliban’s intentions and the intersection of the supply lines with Pakistani politics. Then we need to overlay the supply infrastructure map with the tribal/ethnolinguistic map of the region and see which groups hold the most cards along the various segments of the routes.

3. U.S.-Russian negotiations: The Americans and Russians are in the thick of negotiations. The Americans have sent several delegations in the past week, including three former secretaries of state, three former senators and a former defense secretary — all with a history of dealing with the Russians during or after the Cold War. This weekend will also see the second trip in a week by former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, a key player in these negotiations. It looks as if the United States is making a concerted effort for serious talks, but the Russians feel that the Americans mainly want to address one topic: nuclear arms treaties. We need to see if the Americans are receptive to Russian demands over issues like Polish defense or limits to Western influence in Central Asia.

4. Central Asian moves: Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov is scheduled to visit Russia March 24-25, which in and of itself does not look atypical. However, there is a fundamental redefinition going on inside Central Asia, sparked by the Russo-Georgian war, the financial crisis and the U.S.-Russian tug-of-war over Central Asian routes to Afghanistan. Watch which states within Central Asia can thrive, which can weather the storm and which will need to search for larger protectors.

5. Clinton’s trip to Mexico: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be in Mexico March 25-26. The visit comes amid rising tensions between the United States and Mexico over trade issues and Washington’s renewed focus on border security, with discussions focused on creating contingency plans that would move National Guard troops to the border in the event of a spillover of violence into the United States. Watch what comes out of Clinton’s visit to see which direction the Obama administration’s trade and security relationship with Mexico will go.

EURASIA

March 20-22: Former U.S. Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and James Baker will be in Moscow to discuss major issues, like START negotiations and NATO enlargement, with top Russian officials.

March 23-24: Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will visit Russia along with around 1,000 businessmen and entrepreneurs to meet with their counterparts in Moscow.

March 24: The United Kingdom will host the CEOs of the leading banks from the United States, Europe, and Japan in London for talks on the global economic recession and the future of the financial system.

March 24-25: Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov will visit Russia to discuss energy ties between the two countries.

March 26-27: Turkish President Abdullah Gul will visit the European Union’s headquarters in Brussels to meet with EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso to continue talks on Turkey’s prospects of joining the European bloc.

March 27: A Security Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting will be held in Moscow to discuss the situation in Afghanistan, with representatives from the United States and Iran expected to attend. It is the first time the United States will be represented at an SCO meeting; Iran has observer status in the organization.

March 27: British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is expected to meet with Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner on the sidelines of a summit in Chile to discuss the status of the Falkland Islands, over which the two countries fought a war in 1982.

MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA

March 20-22: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will lead a delegation of top Iranian officials to the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e-Sharif. During his stay, Mottaki is to attend a Nowruz festival with Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs Rangin Dadfar Spanta and Tajik Minister of Foreign Affairs Hamrokhon Zarifi. Mottaki, Spanta and Zarifi will then hold a meeting.

March 20: Syrian President Bashar al Assad will meet with Jordanian King Abdullah II in Jordan in an effort to boost relations between their countries before an upcoming Arab League summit.

March 20: U.S. CIA chief Leon Panetta reportedly will visit Pakistan on the second phase of a tour of South Asia (Pakistani media have not confirmed his visit). Panetta is to meet with Interior Adviser Rehman Malik, Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence Ahmad Shuja Pasha and Pakistani army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani. Panetta is expected to discuss the Pakistani-Afghan border situation, the recent attack in Mumbai and the ongoing war on terror. Panetta is also to visit Pakistan’s tribal areas for an assessment of the overall security situation.

March 20: French State Minister for Cooperation Alain Joyandet will visit Lebanon to represent France during the International Day of Francophonie and hold talks with top Lebanese government officials on bolstering bilateral relations.

March 21: Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi will travel to Kuwait to meet with officials in an attempt to support bilateral cooperation in such areas as trade, tourism, education and infrastructure.

March 22: French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner will visit Saudi Arabia.

EAST ASIA

March 20: Li Changchun, a senior Communist Party of China official, will begin a goodwill visit to Australia, Myanmar, Japan and South Korea.

March 21: The Thai Parliament will vote on an opposition motion of no-confidence in Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and members of his Cabinet.

March 21-25: Bulgarian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivailo Kalfin will pay an official visit to China at the invitation of Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.

March 21-26: Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez will pay a state visit to China. This is his first trip since taking office. During the visit, he will meet with Chinese leaders and sign a number of cooperation documents.

March 22-23: The chief negotiators for the Korea-EU free trade agreement will wrap up talks during the targeted final round in Seoul and then submit the tentative agreement to their respective trade ministers for final approval.

March 23-24, South Korean chief nuclear negotiator Wi Sung Lac will head to Beijing. No firm details have been given about the trip, and the dates could be revised but it is expected that discussions will center on North Korean nuclear negotiations and the satellite launch scheduled for early next month.

March 24-26: Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will pay a working visit to Thailand at the invitation of his Thai counterpart Kasit Piromya.

March 24-27: Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith will pay an official visit to China for the second round of a “strategic dialogue” on global and regional security.

March 25: Japan and Vietnam will sign a nuclear pact in Hanoi that will will pave the way for Toshiba Corp. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to win a contract to build Vietnam’s first nuclear power plant.

March 26: Thai “Red Shirt” anti-government demonstrators from the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship will protest, demanding that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva show evidence of progress in legal action against the People’s Alliance for Democracy and the process of amending the Constitution.

LATIN AMERICA

March 23: Peru will send a delegation of economic representatives to Tokyo to discuss bilateral economic cooperation and finalize the Economic Association Accord.

March 23: The Brazilian Workers Federation, a union representing oil workers at Brazil’s state owned energy company Petroleo Brasileiro, could strike, as the union’s members approved a five-day strike beginning this day.

March 23-24: Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa will visit Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo in Asuncion.

March 23-24: Leaders of Venezuela’s main opposition parties — Democratic Action, Movement Toward Socialism, Podemos, A New Era and Alliance of Brave People — plan to attend the Socialist International Conference in Guatemala to deliver a document denouncing Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

March 23-24: The Paraguayan National Farmers Federation will hold its annual march in Asuncion, Paraguay. Although the federation’s protests traditionally have been peaceful and well-organized, government officials have expressed some concern that the protest could be “infiltrated” by individuals wishing to cause an incident.

March 25: The Peruvian Congress’ National Defense Commission will meet to debate the industrialization of the coca leaf. Peruvian coca growers have vowed to protest if the industrialization is not approved.
March 25-26: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will visit Mexico. She is scheduled to travel to Mexico City and Monterrey and discuss the global financial crisis, trade and the war against drugs, as well as the explosion of narcotics-related violence.

March 26: The Colombian government is on alert for a possible major attack on the anniversary of the death of former top Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia commander and founder Manuel “Sureshot” Marulanda.

March 27: Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos and Colombian Foreign Minister Jaime Bermudez will travel to Lima, Peru, to meet with their Peruvian counterparts.

The two countries are expected to discuss ways to boost mutual cooperation, including increased coordinated operations on their shared border to reinforce security.

March 27-28: Chile will host the Progressive Leaders Summit in Vina del Mar. Leaders from around the world, including Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva, Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden, are expected to attend.

AFRICA

March 20-23: The Pope will visit Angola.

March 21: Madagascar’s Constitutional Court will swear in Andry Rajoelina as president.

March 24-25: Kenya will host the Euromoney Kenya Investment conference.

March 25-27: Nigeria’s National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers labor group could strike over security concerns.