"You Are NOT Alone!"
STRATFOR; Intelligence Guidance: Week of March 29, 2009
This is a crucial week to pay attention to geo-politics.
Our foreign policy initiatives under this administration will be on full display.
swanson
www.stratfor.com
Intelligence Guidance: Week of March 29, 2009
STRATFOR TODAY » March 27, 2009 | 2217 GMT
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
The next two weeks could well determine the direction of global affairs for the next several years.
The United States is attempting to revamp its policy toward Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia is attempting to revive its influence, the Europeans are attempting to alter the global financial architecture, the Arabs are attempting to curtail Iran’s emergence from isolation, and China is attempting to hardwire greater influence into international institutions.
To this end, pretty much the entire global leadership will be meeting and remeeting over the next several days in attempts to build coalitions to facilitate making their visions of the future a reality.
The meetings in question are:
March 30: The United Nations’ meeting on Afghanistan
March 30: An Arab League summit
March 31: A U.S.-sponsored and The Hague-hosted summit on the future of Afghanistan
March 31: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev with German Chancellor Angela Merkel
April 1: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev with U.S. President Barack Obama
April 1: A Turkish-hosted trilateral summit on the future of Afghanistan, attended by the Afghan and Pakistani presidents and Islamabad’s military and intelligence chiefs
April 2: A Group of 20 summit
April 3-4: A NATO summit
April 5-6: An EU-U.S. summit, and a trilateral meeting of Obama, Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy
Many of these meetings are significant for multiple reasons:
1. Afghanistan: The primary problem the United States has experienced in the war is that Pakistan has been a less-than-enthusiastic participant, unwilling to crack down on Afghan Taliban and their Pakistani supporters, and faced with an insurgency from Pakistani Taliban allied with al Qaeda.
The United States had planned to establish a supplemental supply route for military goods via Central Asia in order to deny Pakistan any leverage over how the Afghan war is fought. Russia has the power to grant or deny such a supply route, and to let the Americans carry out their plans Moscow would require substantial concessions that would greatly enhance Russian power for years to come.
The Obama administration’s move to focus on Pakistan shows that U.S.-Russian cooperation on Afghanistan will be limited. If the Americans are able to secure their military supply route by pouring money into Pakistan, the Afghan war could take a new turn. But the situation on the ground in Pakistan will make this a difficult task.
Therefore, we need to watch for indicators that suggest that a reinvigorated U.S. effort to focus on Pakistan is having the desired effect and to what degree.
Beyond this keystone issue, there are other less world-shifting Afghanistan-related issues we must watch for. The March 31 Afghan summit in The Hague is the first meeting that the United States has invited the Iranians to since the time of the Shah.
Can there be an Iranian-American understanding on Afghanistan? The April 1 Turkish summit brings together all of Pakistan’s top policymakers regardless of faction. Can the Turks draw Pakistan into their growing sphere of influence?
2. Iran’s position: Like Russia, Iran is a rising power. Iran may not have as much influence in Iraq as it might like, but there is no doubt that Iran’s stock will rise once U.S. forces leave Iraq. But there are plenty of players who do not want to see this happen, and the United States is only one.
Iran is also lashed into everything that involves Afghanistan, so we need to keep Iran in mind when looking at the Afghanistan-dominated meetings above, as well as at the March 30 Arab League summit in Qatar. Arab unity is something of a joke in diplomatic circles, but when all the Sunni Arabs face a common threat from the Shiite Persians, there is a natural inclination to muster a common effort.
3. Global finance: The United States is, little by little, unveiling its effort to better regulate the American financial system, while the Germans are leading a European effort to do the same in a more holistic manner for the European Union. The question for next week is: At what point do these two plans interact?
The Germans are far more eager for an overarching international regulator, and the new administration in Washington has — publicly, at least — appeared receptive. Meanwhile other players, most notably China, will be pressing for their own influence over international finance to be felt.
Our assessment of global economic power is that despite the recession the United States remains not just the largest and most dynamic, but actually the most stable economy.
Anything that subjects the U.S. economy to an international authority must be examined in thorough detail, and the battery of upcoming meetings — particularly the G-20 and U.S.-EU summits — is where such an authority will be discussed.
EURASIA
March 30: Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the United Arab Emirates’ prime minister, will visit Russia for two days to discuss economic cooperation — particularly on energy-related issues — between the two countries.
March 31: U.S. President Barack Obama will meet with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
March 31: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev will hold bilateral meetings with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
April 1: U.S. President Barack Obama will meet with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. Major issues on the agenda are NATO expansion, ballistic missile defense placement and alternative supply lines to Afghanistan through Central Asia.
April 2: The Group of 20 summit will take place in London, with leaders from the world’s 20 largest economies (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union) set to meet and discuss reforming the international financial sector to in response to the global economic recession.
April 3-4: NATO will hold a heads of state summit in Baden-Baden and Kehl, Germany, and in Strasbourg, France.
The summit will be hosted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. U.S.
President Barack Obama will also attend. Sarkozy and Merkel are both likely to meet with Obama amid numerous bilateral meetings before the summit.
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
March 27: The president of United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nuhayyan, will continue his visit to Bahrain. Sheikh Khalifa is accompanied by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Gen. Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
March 27: President Abdullah Gul will return to Turkey after visiting Brussels.
March 29: Turkey will hold municipal elections nationwide.
Mar 30-31: Qatar will host the 21st Arab Summit, with approximately 16 Arab heads of state in attendance.
March 31: Qatar will host the second Summit of Arab-South American Countries, where Arab and South American governments will meet to boost economic, social and cultural ties. Notable attendees will be Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva and Bolivian President Evo Morales.
March 31: The United Nations will host an international conference on Afghanistan in The Hague officially titled, “International Conference on Afghanistan: Comprehensive Strategy in a Regional Context.” Approximately 80 countries will attend the conference, with the objective of discussing measures to rebuild Afghanistan and related diplomatic and military matters. Iran will send a representative but has not yet announced who that representative will be.
March 31-April 1: Informal discussions between Egyptian officials and the Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah will be held in Cairo, followed by official reconciliation talks between the Palestinian factions.
April 1: Turkey will host a trilateral meeting with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari are to meet with Turkish President Abdullah Gul in Ankara to discuss security issues, combating militants in South Asia and improving Afghan-Pakistani relations. Pakistani army chief Gen.
Ashfaq Kayani, Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence Ahmad Shuja Pasha and Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi will also be present.
April 2: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will meet with U.S. President Barack Obama for the first time in London during the Group of 20 summit. Singh is expected to discuss developments in Pakistan and the Taliban problem in Afghanistan during the meeting.
EAST ASIA
March 29-31: Kazakh Foreign Affairs Minister Marat Tazhin will pay an official three-day visit to China.
March 30: China’s Ministry of Finance will issue 3 billion yuan ($441.2 million) in local government bonds on behalf of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, the first such issuance in China.
April 3: Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak will be named as prime minister.
LATIN AMERICA
March 30: Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to release a new official estimate for 2009 gross domestic product growth in its first-quarter inflation report.
March 30-April 2: Mexican President Felipe Calderon will travel to the United Kingdom for a four-day state visit, coinciding with the April 2 Group of 20 summit in London. Calderon and his wife will be guests of Queen Elizabeth II.
March 30: Representatives of the European Union and Central American nations will meet in Honduras for the seventh round of negotiations designed to create an association accord between Central America and the European Union.
April 1: Rural supporters of Bolivian President Evo Morales say they will encircle the Bolivian Congress building in an attempt to force the passage of a bill that would enable Morales to be re-elected. Under the guidelines of the new Bolivian Constitution, Congress has until April 7 to pass the bill, which has already been passed by the Chamber of Deputies.
AFRICA
March 29: Somalia’s semiautonomous region of Puntland will hold a presidential election.
March 30: Swaziland will host a Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit to discuss Zimbabwe and Madagascar.
April 1: Algeria will hold a presidential election.
Our foreign policy initiatives under this administration will be on full display.
swanson
www.stratfor.com
Intelligence Guidance: Week of March 29, 2009
STRATFOR TODAY » March 27, 2009 | 2217 GMT
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
The next two weeks could well determine the direction of global affairs for the next several years.
The United States is attempting to revamp its policy toward Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia is attempting to revive its influence, the Europeans are attempting to alter the global financial architecture, the Arabs are attempting to curtail Iran’s emergence from isolation, and China is attempting to hardwire greater influence into international institutions.
To this end, pretty much the entire global leadership will be meeting and remeeting over the next several days in attempts to build coalitions to facilitate making their visions of the future a reality.
The meetings in question are:
March 30: The United Nations’ meeting on Afghanistan
March 30: An Arab League summit
March 31: A U.S.-sponsored and The Hague-hosted summit on the future of Afghanistan
March 31: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev with German Chancellor Angela Merkel
April 1: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev with U.S. President Barack Obama
April 1: A Turkish-hosted trilateral summit on the future of Afghanistan, attended by the Afghan and Pakistani presidents and Islamabad’s military and intelligence chiefs
April 2: A Group of 20 summit
April 3-4: A NATO summit
April 5-6: An EU-U.S. summit, and a trilateral meeting of Obama, Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy
Many of these meetings are significant for multiple reasons:
1. Afghanistan: The primary problem the United States has experienced in the war is that Pakistan has been a less-than-enthusiastic participant, unwilling to crack down on Afghan Taliban and their Pakistani supporters, and faced with an insurgency from Pakistani Taliban allied with al Qaeda.
The United States had planned to establish a supplemental supply route for military goods via Central Asia in order to deny Pakistan any leverage over how the Afghan war is fought. Russia has the power to grant or deny such a supply route, and to let the Americans carry out their plans Moscow would require substantial concessions that would greatly enhance Russian power for years to come.
The Obama administration’s move to focus on Pakistan shows that U.S.-Russian cooperation on Afghanistan will be limited. If the Americans are able to secure their military supply route by pouring money into Pakistan, the Afghan war could take a new turn. But the situation on the ground in Pakistan will make this a difficult task.
Therefore, we need to watch for indicators that suggest that a reinvigorated U.S. effort to focus on Pakistan is having the desired effect and to what degree.
Beyond this keystone issue, there are other less world-shifting Afghanistan-related issues we must watch for. The March 31 Afghan summit in The Hague is the first meeting that the United States has invited the Iranians to since the time of the Shah.
Can there be an Iranian-American understanding on Afghanistan? The April 1 Turkish summit brings together all of Pakistan’s top policymakers regardless of faction. Can the Turks draw Pakistan into their growing sphere of influence?
2. Iran’s position: Like Russia, Iran is a rising power. Iran may not have as much influence in Iraq as it might like, but there is no doubt that Iran’s stock will rise once U.S. forces leave Iraq. But there are plenty of players who do not want to see this happen, and the United States is only one.
Iran is also lashed into everything that involves Afghanistan, so we need to keep Iran in mind when looking at the Afghanistan-dominated meetings above, as well as at the March 30 Arab League summit in Qatar. Arab unity is something of a joke in diplomatic circles, but when all the Sunni Arabs face a common threat from the Shiite Persians, there is a natural inclination to muster a common effort.
3. Global finance: The United States is, little by little, unveiling its effort to better regulate the American financial system, while the Germans are leading a European effort to do the same in a more holistic manner for the European Union. The question for next week is: At what point do these two plans interact?
The Germans are far more eager for an overarching international regulator, and the new administration in Washington has — publicly, at least — appeared receptive. Meanwhile other players, most notably China, will be pressing for their own influence over international finance to be felt.
Our assessment of global economic power is that despite the recession the United States remains not just the largest and most dynamic, but actually the most stable economy.
Anything that subjects the U.S. economy to an international authority must be examined in thorough detail, and the battery of upcoming meetings — particularly the G-20 and U.S.-EU summits — is where such an authority will be discussed.
EURASIA
March 30: Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the United Arab Emirates’ prime minister, will visit Russia for two days to discuss economic cooperation — particularly on energy-related issues — between the two countries.
March 31: U.S. President Barack Obama will meet with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
March 31: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev will hold bilateral meetings with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
April 1: U.S. President Barack Obama will meet with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. Major issues on the agenda are NATO expansion, ballistic missile defense placement and alternative supply lines to Afghanistan through Central Asia.
April 2: The Group of 20 summit will take place in London, with leaders from the world’s 20 largest economies (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union) set to meet and discuss reforming the international financial sector to in response to the global economic recession.
April 3-4: NATO will hold a heads of state summit in Baden-Baden and Kehl, Germany, and in Strasbourg, France.
The summit will be hosted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. U.S.
President Barack Obama will also attend. Sarkozy and Merkel are both likely to meet with Obama amid numerous bilateral meetings before the summit.
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
March 27: The president of United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nuhayyan, will continue his visit to Bahrain. Sheikh Khalifa is accompanied by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Gen. Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
March 27: President Abdullah Gul will return to Turkey after visiting Brussels.
March 29: Turkey will hold municipal elections nationwide.
Mar 30-31: Qatar will host the 21st Arab Summit, with approximately 16 Arab heads of state in attendance.
March 31: Qatar will host the second Summit of Arab-South American Countries, where Arab and South American governments will meet to boost economic, social and cultural ties. Notable attendees will be Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva and Bolivian President Evo Morales.
March 31: The United Nations will host an international conference on Afghanistan in The Hague officially titled, “International Conference on Afghanistan: Comprehensive Strategy in a Regional Context.” Approximately 80 countries will attend the conference, with the objective of discussing measures to rebuild Afghanistan and related diplomatic and military matters. Iran will send a representative but has not yet announced who that representative will be.
March 31-April 1: Informal discussions between Egyptian officials and the Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah will be held in Cairo, followed by official reconciliation talks between the Palestinian factions.
April 1: Turkey will host a trilateral meeting with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari are to meet with Turkish President Abdullah Gul in Ankara to discuss security issues, combating militants in South Asia and improving Afghan-Pakistani relations. Pakistani army chief Gen.
Ashfaq Kayani, Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence Ahmad Shuja Pasha and Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi will also be present.
April 2: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will meet with U.S. President Barack Obama for the first time in London during the Group of 20 summit. Singh is expected to discuss developments in Pakistan and the Taliban problem in Afghanistan during the meeting.
EAST ASIA
March 29-31: Kazakh Foreign Affairs Minister Marat Tazhin will pay an official three-day visit to China.
March 30: China’s Ministry of Finance will issue 3 billion yuan ($441.2 million) in local government bonds on behalf of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, the first such issuance in China.
April 3: Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak will be named as prime minister.
LATIN AMERICA
March 30: Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to release a new official estimate for 2009 gross domestic product growth in its first-quarter inflation report.
March 30-April 2: Mexican President Felipe Calderon will travel to the United Kingdom for a four-day state visit, coinciding with the April 2 Group of 20 summit in London. Calderon and his wife will be guests of Queen Elizabeth II.
March 30: Representatives of the European Union and Central American nations will meet in Honduras for the seventh round of negotiations designed to create an association accord between Central America and the European Union.
April 1: Rural supporters of Bolivian President Evo Morales say they will encircle the Bolivian Congress building in an attempt to force the passage of a bill that would enable Morales to be re-elected. Under the guidelines of the new Bolivian Constitution, Congress has until April 7 to pass the bill, which has already been passed by the Chamber of Deputies.
AFRICA
March 29: Somalia’s semiautonomous region of Puntland will hold a presidential election.
March 30: Swaziland will host a Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit to discuss Zimbabwe and Madagascar.
April 1: Algeria will hold a presidential election.
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