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STRATFOR; Intelligence Guidance: Week of March 15, 2009
Intelligence Guidance: Week of March 15, 2009
STRATFOR TODAY » March 13, 2009 | 2211 GMT
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
Weekly Updates
1. The G20 finance ministers’ meeting: The Group of 20’s finance ministers will meet March 14 to prepare for the group’s April 2 heads of government summit. Many are talking about a remaking of the global financial system, a sort of Bretton Woods II. We do not see that as even remotely likely. Instead, the question is more basic. Will there be any meaningful transnational cooperation at all? Switzerland and the United Kingdom have launched policies that are crashing their currencies, the Germans are acting most methodically, and China is keeping its plans to itself (see below). Luckily, there will be plenty of leaks out of a finance ministers’ meeting this large. We will not have to go far to get the details of the plans (or more likely, the details of the non-plans).
2. Maneuvering ahead of the NATO summit: There are only two weeks remaining before the NATO summit, and everything is in motion. The Americans and Russians are edging toward engaging in direct talks on a number of headline issues including START talks, halting NATO expansion, supply routes to Afghanistan via Central Asia and ballistic missile defense (BMD). The rough outlines of the plan — U.S. geopolitical concessions in exchange for Russian assistance in Afghanistan — are being sketched out. The question now is how everyone will respond to the seeming fact that the Americans are willing to talk to the Russians about such a deal. The Central European states — all of whom depend on the United States for protection against Russia — are going to be panicking, and each will need to make its own decisions on how much to trust the Americans and how much to resist the Russians. Poland holds the balance of power in this. Not only are the Poles to host an American BMD site, but they boast the region’s largest most stable economy. Poland is also the Central European state with the best chance of resisting Russia. Watch Warsaw like a hawk.
3. Brazilian-U.S. talks: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva will be in the United States March 14-15 for meetings at the United Nations and, far more importantly, the White House. Brazil is clearly the dominant power of South America and a rising power globally. Both sides would benefit immensely in the energy, trade and security spheres from a strong partnership, but so far the Obama administration has not demonstrated any interest in South America. This meeting will showcase whether or not the Obama administration — or the da Silva administration, for that matter — expects anything of substance during the next four years.
4. Chinese policy changes: Normally, China’s annual National People’s Congress (NPC) marks the announcement of several (previously designed) policies rather than the debate of anything new. It is a rubber stamping body. But this year — the NPC concluded March 13 — the government only went in with a series of economic development goals, and left it to behind-the-scenes meetings to figure out how to implement them. China should be flooded with policy leaks in the next week as national, regional and local officials and businessmen begin taking pieces of the various plans and implementing them. We’ll need to sift through the sea of information and start piecing together the big picture.
EURASIA
March 14: An informal meeting of finance ministers from the Group of 20 is set to take place in London prior to the G20 leaders’ summit scheduled for April 2 in the same location. Debates over stimulus packages and anti-crisis measures will take place in the context of attempting to form a unified plan to tackle the global economic recession.
March 16: A delegation from the International Monetary Fund will visit Serbia to discuss the county’s financial situation and an arrangement for a possible loan of approximately $1.5-2 billion.
March 16-17: A high-level EU delegation will visit Washington to hold talks on how the United States plans to handle the Guantanamo prisoners after the prison is shut down and where they likely will be transferred.
March 16: EU ambassadors will hold a discussion regarding the bloc’s relationship with Belarus hours before a debate among EU foreign ministers is scheduled, with topics such as freezing a visa ban issued last October and the prospects of Belarus joining the European Union’s Eastern Partnership initiative.
March 17: St. Patrick’s Day will be celebrated. Though violence is usually uncommon in Ireland and the United Kingdom due to the somber reception of the holiday, security will be on high alert following recent attacks in Northern Ireland.
March 17: Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is set to announce his nominee to replace outgoing Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko, who was ousted last week.
March 19: A European Central Bank Governing Council and General Council meeting will be held in Frankfurt; changes to interest rates are unlikely.
March 20: Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader will visit Serbia, marking his first trip to the country in two years, just before Croatia is set to become a member of NATO.
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
March 13-14: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will visit neighboring Armenia for talks on issues related to bilateral economic and political cooperation as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
March 13-16: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will continue his five-day visit to Australia. Al-Maliki is meeting with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to discuss bilateral relations and how Canberra can help Iraq improve its political and economic standing.
March 13-16: Israel Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi will meet with U.S. officials in Washington, including U.S. National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones, as well as top commanders of the U.S. Air Force, Army and Navy. He will also meet with Dennis Ross, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s special adviser on Iran.
March 14-20: Senior delegations from rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah will continue national unity reconciliation talks in Cairo that began on March 10.
March 15: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet in Vienna to debate whether to cut output further or to make fresh efforts to comply with previously announced cuts.
March 20: Newly elected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will face the deadline to officially form his coalition government. His coalition must be submitted 24 hours before it is officially voted on.
EAST ASIA
March 13-20: South Korea and the United States will continue their joint military exercise. The U.S. military has mobilized a total of 26,000 troops to test its ability to quickly deploy forces in case of an invasion in South Korea.
March 17-21: North Korean Prime Minister Kim Yong Il will visit China to meet with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao amid international concerns that Pyongyang is preparing for a missile test.
March 18-21: Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo will pay an official visit to Vietnam at the invitation of Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Pham Gia Khiem.
LATIN AMERICA
March 14-16: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva will visit the United States, meeting with his counterpart Barack Obama March 14 to discuss bilateral issues.
March 15: El Salvador will hold presidential elections, in which Mauricio Funes from the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front party will face off with Rodrigo Avila from the Arena party.
March 17: The deadline which several prominent farmers’ groups debating with the Argentine government over export taxes have set for Buenos Aires to settle the issue will pass. If progress is not made in the negotiations, or if the issue is not given quorum in Parliament, protests will resume throughout the country.
March 19: Argentine opposition legislators will convene to discuss a proposal that would eliminate export taxes on wheat and maize.
March 19: Demonstrations could be held in Cordoba, Argentina, if the government does not meet farmers groups’ demands.
AFRICA
March 17-23: The Pope will visit Cameroon (March 17-19) and Angola (March 20-23).
STRATFOR TODAY » March 13, 2009 | 2211 GMT
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
Weekly Updates
1. The G20 finance ministers’ meeting: The Group of 20’s finance ministers will meet March 14 to prepare for the group’s April 2 heads of government summit. Many are talking about a remaking of the global financial system, a sort of Bretton Woods II. We do not see that as even remotely likely. Instead, the question is more basic. Will there be any meaningful transnational cooperation at all? Switzerland and the United Kingdom have launched policies that are crashing their currencies, the Germans are acting most methodically, and China is keeping its plans to itself (see below). Luckily, there will be plenty of leaks out of a finance ministers’ meeting this large. We will not have to go far to get the details of the plans (or more likely, the details of the non-plans).
2. Maneuvering ahead of the NATO summit: There are only two weeks remaining before the NATO summit, and everything is in motion. The Americans and Russians are edging toward engaging in direct talks on a number of headline issues including START talks, halting NATO expansion, supply routes to Afghanistan via Central Asia and ballistic missile defense (BMD). The rough outlines of the plan — U.S. geopolitical concessions in exchange for Russian assistance in Afghanistan — are being sketched out. The question now is how everyone will respond to the seeming fact that the Americans are willing to talk to the Russians about such a deal. The Central European states — all of whom depend on the United States for protection against Russia — are going to be panicking, and each will need to make its own decisions on how much to trust the Americans and how much to resist the Russians. Poland holds the balance of power in this. Not only are the Poles to host an American BMD site, but they boast the region’s largest most stable economy. Poland is also the Central European state with the best chance of resisting Russia. Watch Warsaw like a hawk.
3. Brazilian-U.S. talks: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva will be in the United States March 14-15 for meetings at the United Nations and, far more importantly, the White House. Brazil is clearly the dominant power of South America and a rising power globally. Both sides would benefit immensely in the energy, trade and security spheres from a strong partnership, but so far the Obama administration has not demonstrated any interest in South America. This meeting will showcase whether or not the Obama administration — or the da Silva administration, for that matter — expects anything of substance during the next four years.
4. Chinese policy changes: Normally, China’s annual National People’s Congress (NPC) marks the announcement of several (previously designed) policies rather than the debate of anything new. It is a rubber stamping body. But this year — the NPC concluded March 13 — the government only went in with a series of economic development goals, and left it to behind-the-scenes meetings to figure out how to implement them. China should be flooded with policy leaks in the next week as national, regional and local officials and businessmen begin taking pieces of the various plans and implementing them. We’ll need to sift through the sea of information and start piecing together the big picture.
EURASIA
March 14: An informal meeting of finance ministers from the Group of 20 is set to take place in London prior to the G20 leaders’ summit scheduled for April 2 in the same location. Debates over stimulus packages and anti-crisis measures will take place in the context of attempting to form a unified plan to tackle the global economic recession.
March 16: A delegation from the International Monetary Fund will visit Serbia to discuss the county’s financial situation and an arrangement for a possible loan of approximately $1.5-2 billion.
March 16-17: A high-level EU delegation will visit Washington to hold talks on how the United States plans to handle the Guantanamo prisoners after the prison is shut down and where they likely will be transferred.
March 16: EU ambassadors will hold a discussion regarding the bloc’s relationship with Belarus hours before a debate among EU foreign ministers is scheduled, with topics such as freezing a visa ban issued last October and the prospects of Belarus joining the European Union’s Eastern Partnership initiative.
March 17: St. Patrick’s Day will be celebrated. Though violence is usually uncommon in Ireland and the United Kingdom due to the somber reception of the holiday, security will be on high alert following recent attacks in Northern Ireland.
March 17: Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is set to announce his nominee to replace outgoing Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko, who was ousted last week.
March 19: A European Central Bank Governing Council and General Council meeting will be held in Frankfurt; changes to interest rates are unlikely.
March 20: Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader will visit Serbia, marking his first trip to the country in two years, just before Croatia is set to become a member of NATO.
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
March 13-14: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will visit neighboring Armenia for talks on issues related to bilateral economic and political cooperation as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
March 13-16: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will continue his five-day visit to Australia. Al-Maliki is meeting with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to discuss bilateral relations and how Canberra can help Iraq improve its political and economic standing.
March 13-16: Israel Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi will meet with U.S. officials in Washington, including U.S. National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones, as well as top commanders of the U.S. Air Force, Army and Navy. He will also meet with Dennis Ross, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s special adviser on Iran.
March 14-20: Senior delegations from rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah will continue national unity reconciliation talks in Cairo that began on March 10.
March 15: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet in Vienna to debate whether to cut output further or to make fresh efforts to comply with previously announced cuts.
March 20: Newly elected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will face the deadline to officially form his coalition government. His coalition must be submitted 24 hours before it is officially voted on.
EAST ASIA
March 13-20: South Korea and the United States will continue their joint military exercise. The U.S. military has mobilized a total of 26,000 troops to test its ability to quickly deploy forces in case of an invasion in South Korea.
March 17-21: North Korean Prime Minister Kim Yong Il will visit China to meet with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao amid international concerns that Pyongyang is preparing for a missile test.
March 18-21: Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo will pay an official visit to Vietnam at the invitation of Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Pham Gia Khiem.
LATIN AMERICA
March 14-16: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva will visit the United States, meeting with his counterpart Barack Obama March 14 to discuss bilateral issues.
March 15: El Salvador will hold presidential elections, in which Mauricio Funes from the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front party will face off with Rodrigo Avila from the Arena party.
March 17: The deadline which several prominent farmers’ groups debating with the Argentine government over export taxes have set for Buenos Aires to settle the issue will pass. If progress is not made in the negotiations, or if the issue is not given quorum in Parliament, protests will resume throughout the country.
March 19: Argentine opposition legislators will convene to discuss a proposal that would eliminate export taxes on wheat and maize.
March 19: Demonstrations could be held in Cordoba, Argentina, if the government does not meet farmers groups’ demands.
AFRICA
March 17-23: The Pope will visit Cameroon (March 17-19) and Angola (March 20-23).
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