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Intelligence Guidance: Week of April 5, 2009

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Intelligence Guidance: Week of April 5, 2009

STRATFOR TODAY » April 3, 2009 | 2221 GMT

Polish President Lech Kaczynski (L) and French President Nicolas Sarkozy (R) attend the opening of the NATO summit April 3, 2009

Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.

Weekly Updates

1. The summits: The biggest developments of the coming week will be the conclusions of the battery of summits. At the time of this writing the NATO summit is in full swing. The EU-US summit follows, concluding on April 5. So far the French and Germans have been disappointed in the Americans’ ability to water down their financial regulations in the G-20, and the Americans have been disappointed in the lack of European material support for the Afghan war. The Europeans are beginning to realize that the Americans have non-European options.

There are four general guidelines for the summits. First, watch for any new commitments from any players on such issues. It isn’t too late for any party to make a surprise concession.

Second, U.S. President Barack Obama’s speech at the Prague Castle on April 5 is an excellent opportunity to sketch out his happiness — or lack thereof — with what the Europeans might be willing to offer.

Third, immediately after Obama leaves the European summits, he travels to Turkey for an April 6-7 bilateral summit. Already the Turks are laying the groundwork for displacing Western Europe as the center of U.S. security policy. One item to watch in this is how much the Americans pressure the Turks to accept the candidacy of Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen as NATO secretary-general. The Germans want no one but Rasmussen, and the Turks anyone but Rasmussen; the United States approves of him but is not firmly committed. But the real outcome will not be determined until April 7 when the United States will need to announce new policies.

Finally, in parallel to all of this, the Russians are watching and waiting to see how the Western allies respond to recent actions Moscow has taken. The Russians’ plans for expanding their influence are currently being held in abeyance. They hope to recenter and relaunch as soon as Obama makes his positions known. This should be easy to monitor; they are unlikely to be subtle.

2. A possible moment for Iran: While in Turkey, Obama will attend an “Alliance of Civilizations” conference which will also count among its attendees former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami — a politician whom Washington often considers to be “reformist.” Considering how fast and furious the Obama administration is moving on Iraq and Afghanistan, the need for better communication with Iran is a given. Opportunities abound for an informal meeting.

3. The United States and South Asia: Richard Holbrooke will visit both Pakistan and India next week in an attempt to garner cooperation for the Obama administration’s new policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan, which involves economic incentives to urge Pakistan to take a more forthright role in battling militants while finding moderate elements of the Taliban to negotiate with. For STRATFOR, this is going to be an intelligence task; we need to judge the mood inside the Pakistani government and military.

4. New U.S. defense budget: U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates pitches the defense budget April 6 in the first major reshuffling of security priorities in six years. It will serve as a guide to where the Obama administration thinks it is going, and what it thinks is possible. We’ll need to make sure to comb through it line by line.

5. Asian stability: North Korea is planning to launch a satellite between April 4 and April 8. Despite the media frenzy, and protestations from regional players and the United States, the incident has little significance in and of itself. The North Koreans have become expert over the years at fabricating “crisis” scenarios in order to win political concessions from outside powers, meanwhile making incremental progress on security capabilities and deterrence. Thus, unless there is a serious accident or miscalculation, this launch will be a distraction from the world’s more important affairs — such as the ongoing European summits and broader economic crisis.

The economic pressure globally remains high. Particularly in Southeast Asia we have governments — Thailand and Malaysia, most notably — that were already grappling with social instability well before the current recession struck, and now they are facing huge trouble. And unlike the last time these regions faced a major crisis, the stability granted by the old dynastic regimes is a thing of the past. Volatile politics and fragile economies are the perfect recipe for social explosions. In particular this week we need to watch Indonesia’s parliamentary elections on April 9, and a series of symbolic by-elections in Malaysia on April 7.

EURASIA

April 3-4: NATO will hold a summit for heads of state in Baden-Baden and Kehl, Germany, and in Strasbourg, France. The summit will be hosted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy and will include discussions on issues including the war in Afghanistan and ways to deal with a resurgent Russia.

April 5: The European Union summit will be held in Prague, Czech Republic (the current holder of the EU’s six-month rotating presidency). U.S. President Barack Obama will attend the summit and hold bilateral meetings with leaders from Germany, France and the Czech Republic, among others.

April 5-7: U.S. President Barack Obama will visit Turkey to hold talks with the country’s leadership and review developments that occurred over the course of the G-20 and EU summits.

April 6: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is scheduled to visit Moscow to hold talks with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

April 6: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will visit Kazakhstan and meet with the country’s president, Nursultan Nazarbayev.

April 9: French energy workers have planned to hold a 24-hour strike to protest salary arrears and voice concern about safety of public sector jobs in the midst of the economic recession.

MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA

April 4: Jordan will host officials from a technical subcommittee of the Jordanian-Syrian Committee of the Yarmouk River Basin to discuss water-sharing agreements between the countries and Syrian violations of the bilateral water-sharing contract.

April 5-11: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will visit Moscow during this week. Al-Maliki will be accompanied by a large delegation and will meet with top Russian leaders.

April 6: U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke will visit Pakistan to discuss bilateral relations. Pakistan will address the missile attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles in the northwest tribal areas with Holbrooke during the visit.

April 6-8: Indian Vice President Mohammad Hamid Ansari will visit Kuwait discuss issues of mutual interest with Kuwaiti leaders. He will be accompanied by Indian Junior Minister for Statistics and Program Implementation G.K. Vasan and other Indian officials and will speak to business and industry leaders at Kuwait’s Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

April 6-7: Turkey will host the Alliance of Civilizations summit in Istanbul. U.S. President Barack Obama will attend, as will former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami.

April 7: Palestinian Justice Minister Ali Khashan will visit Paris for talks with French Junior Foreign Minister and Minister for Human Rights Rama Yade. The talks are to focus on the Hamas-Fatah dialogue, human rights issues and the newly-formed Israeli government.

EAST ASIA

April 3-10: Thai Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn will visit China.

April 4-8: North Korea will launch the Kwangmyongsong-2, an experimental communications satellite, during this window.

April 4-8: Ambassador Tatsuo Arima, Japan’s special envoy for the Middle East, will visit the United States to exchange views with key government officials and intellectuals concerned with the Middle East peace process, including U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East George J. Mitchell.

April 4-10: Nepalese Foreign Minister Upendra Yadav will pay an official visit to China.

April 5-7: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will visit Japan. His agenda will focus on energy and financing deals. Chavez is also said to be planning a visit to China, but Chinese officials have not confirmed such a visit.

April 5-7: Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev will pay an official visit to China.

April 9: Indonesia will hold parliamentary elections, ahead of a presidential vote in July. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party is favored to win most seats.

April 10-12: Thailand will hold its postponed Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summits (ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6) in the coastal town of Pattaya. The summits are expected to include discussions on fixing the financial architecture following the London G-20 summit; an Asian currency unit; climate change and food security.

LATIN AMERICA

April 8: Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo will travel to Brasilia to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva. The two leaders will discuss bilateral relations and their countries’ ongoing dispute over the Itaipu hydroelectric dam.

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